The Fragile Promise of Blue Carbon Offsetting

Governments and corporations are increasingly looking to the marine wetlands as a solution for offsetting their carbon emissions. But can these delicate ecosystems truly deliver on such promises?

In Andalusia, pilot projects backed by major polluters such as Moeve (formerly Cepsa) aim to restore wetlands as a way to compensate for emissions.

Meanwhile, in the UK, the Saltmarsh Code is transforming these ecosystems into a new asset class for conservation finance.Drawing on access to information requests and interviews with over 30 experts - including scientists, policymakers, and financial analysts - this report uncovers the challenges of integrating these dynamic ecosystems into carbon markets.

While blue carbon initiatives can enhance biodiversity and coastal resilience, experts warn that their effectiveness in offsetting emissions remains highly uncertain.

The investigation also explores the risks of public-private financing models, the scientific limits of carbon sequestration, and alternative financing strategies that could support marine conservation without relying on fragile offsetting claims.

Photo: Fernando Brun, one of the lead authors of the Andalusian Blue Carbon Standard, conducts measurements to assess the carbon stock in the project areas of Cádiz Bay. © Helena Rodríguez Gómez